MODULE 01  ·  ECHO
Threat Registry
Identify and document every credible threat and hazard relevant to your AO.

THIRA stands for Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment — a structured framework developed by FEMA (CPG 201, 3rd Edition) to help communities identify what threats they face, how bad those threats could be, and what capabilities they need to survive them. ECHO adapts this framework for individual and group preparedness. The process starts here: build a complete list of every credible threat in your area before you rate or rank anything. Threats are organized into three categories — Natural (acts of nature: storms, floods, drought), Technological (system failures: grid down, water outage, fuel disruption), and Human-Caused (intentional actions or societal breakdown: civil unrest, supply chain collapse, attack). Cast a wide net. Think about your specific location, climate, and proximity to population centers. A threat that seems unlikely is still worth listing — you will rate probability in Module 02. Note that major threats rarely disable only one system: a pandemic simultaneously degrades transportation, banking, energy, communications, and emergency response. An EMP strike takes down every critical infrastructure sector identified by the federal government in a single second. The goal here is completeness — list everything, judge nothing yet.

MODULE 02  ·  ECHO
Probability & Impact Rating
Rate each threat on probability of occurrence and impact on your group.

Rate each threat on two axes. Probability (1–5): how likely is this threat to affect your AO within 5 years? Impact (1–5): if it occurred, how severe is the effect on your group? A Severity Modifier accounts for cascading effects and complexity — the 2019 National THIRA explicitly models that major incidents do not occur in isolation. Priority Score = Probability × Impact × Severity. Max = 75. High: 38+, Medium: 16–37, Low: 1–15. Calibration note: Koppel (Lights Out, 2015) documents that the US grid has no federal mandatory security standards and that NERC/FERC have repeatedly failed to require hardening. A single well-placed physical or cyber attack on 9 key substations could take down the eastern interconnect for 18 months or more. Rate grid-related threats accordingly — this is not a low-probability scenario. Skousen rates nuclear war as a long-term near-certainty; weight his probability estimates against your own assessment, but his target location data is reliable regardless of probability assigned.

MODULE 03  ·  ECHO
Capability Assessment
Assess your current capability against each threat using the POETE framework.

The POETE framework (CPG 201 / SPR) evaluates capability across five dimensions: Planning (plans, procedures, mutual aid), Organization (team structure, roles), Equipment (gear, supplies, systems), Training (skills, knowledge), and Exercises (practice, drills). Rate 1–5 for each area per threat. 1 = critically deficient, 5 = full capability. Threats sorted by priority score. Set a Capability Target — what success looks like in specific, measurable terms.

MODULE 04  ·  ECHO
Gap Analysis
Document specific preparedness shortfalls, ordered by threat priority.

A gap is a specific deficiency — not "we need more medical supplies" but "we have no trained tourniquet applicator and no hemostatic gauze." Specific gaps produce specific corrective actions. For each gap, identify the POETE area where the shortfall exists and assign a priority (High/Medium/Low) relative to the threat's priority score. Threats appear in priority order. Gaps feed directly into the Prep Roadmap.

MODULE 05  ·  ECHO
Preparedness Roadmap
Convert gaps into assigned, time-bound corrective actions.

Every gap gets a task, every task gets a responsible person and a target date. Prioritize by threat priority score × gap severity. The roadmap is what ECHO produces — it links back to every other module in the suite. Gaps in medical point to Medical Command. Gaps in comms point to Comms Matrix. Gaps in water point to Hydro. Describing an approach here creates no obligation to complete it within the timeframe — it is a planning tool, not a commitment.

OUTPUTS  ·  ECHO
Generate Documents
Print-ready THIRA reference outputs from your assessment data.
OUTPUT 1
Threat Priority Matrix

All identified threats ranked by priority score with probability, impact, and severity ratings. Sorted high to low.

OUTPUT 2
Gap Analysis Summary

Prioritized list of preparedness shortfalls by POETE area with capability scores and gap priorities.

OUTPUT 3
Preparedness Roadmap

Action plan with assigned tasks, responsible persons, timeframes, and current status — sorted by priority.

OUTPUT 4
Full THIRA Report

Complete assessment document with all data — threat context, capability targets, gaps, and roadmap. Suitable for group briefing.

OUTPUT 5
Group Vulnerability Profile

Synthesized view of your group's key vulnerability patterns across all threats — heat sources, medical dependencies, supply depth, location factors. The data collection payoff.

Key: ao_echo_v1  ·  Export before clearing.
HELP  ·  ECHO
User Manual
Full guide to every screen. Hover any acronym for its meaning.
WATCHMAN:ECHO
THREAT & HAZARD ASSESSMENT  ·  MODULE 14

User Manual

Plain-language guide. No experience needed.
If you can fill out a form, you can run ECHO. Read this once, keep it in the binder.

This manual assumes you have never opened ECHO before. Every screen is explained in plain language. Work through it in order the first time. After that, use the table of contents to jump to what you need. Hover over any underlined acronym on screen for its definition.

CONTENTS

Table of Contents

SECTION 1

What is ECHO

ECHO is the threat assessment module of the WATCHMAN Suite. It implements the THIRA framework — Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment — adapted for individual and small-group preparedness. The module answers three questions:

  • What threats does your group realistically face?
  • How serious are they, and how ready are you to handle them?
  • What do you need to do about it, and in what order?

ECHO is not a one-time exercise. It is a living document. Threats change, capabilities change, gaps get closed. Use the Review Cycle system to stay current.

SCOPE NOTEECHO handles preparedness capability assessment. Intelligence collection, area study, and active monitoring belong in Area Intel Map and Sentinel. Those modules connect back to ECHO through the gap analysis and roadmap.

Navigation

Use the sidebar on the left to move between sections. Each section number shows a count of items when data is present. Work through sections 01 through 05 in order on your first run.

Data Storage

All data saves locally in your browser. Nothing goes to a server. Use the SAVE button at the bottom of each section before navigating away. Export a Full THIRA Report periodically as a backup — if browser data is cleared, your assessments are lost.

SECTION 2

Module 01 — Threat Registry

Build your complete threat list here. The principle is completeness before prioritization. Include every credible threat. Do not filter at this stage — you will rate and sort in Module 02.

DOCTRINE NOTEA threat that seems unlikely is still worth listing. Leaving it out is a planning decision you may regret. Include it and give it a low probability score in Module 02.

Adding a Threat

Click + ADD THREAT in the upper right. The Add Threat modal opens.

  1. Select a threat type from the grouped dropdown. Threats are organized under three categories — Natural (storms, floods, wildfire), Technological (grid failure, nuclear plant, hazmat), and Human-Caused (civil unrest, supply chain, refugee influx). If no type fits, select Custom / Other at the bottom and enter a name manually.
  2. Fill in the Threat Characterization Data fields that appear below the dropdown. These fields are specific to each threat type and collect structured information about how this threat applies to your situation. Fill in every field you can answer. This data drives the Group Vulnerability Profile in Generate Docs.
  3. For typed threats, click ⚡ AUTO-GENERATE FROM FIELDS to write an AO Context summary from your characterization data. You can edit the result.
  4. Add a Description for any additional notes specific to your situation.
  5. Set Last Reviewed Date to today and choose a Review Cycle. When the cycle elapses, a yellow REVIEW DUE flag appears on the card.
  6. Click ✓ SAVE THREAT.

Review Cycles

30 daysMonthly — fast-moving or active threats
90 daysQuarterly — human terrain, civil unrest concerns
180 daysSemi-Annual — default for most threats
365 daysAnnual — slow-moving or low-probability threats

Threat Cards

After saving, your threat appears as a card in the registry showing category, review status, active indicator dots, and completion status for Rated, Assessed, Gaps, and Indicators. The colored dot in the upper right shows priority level after Module 02 scoring. Click EDIT to modify or the red to delete.

WARNINGDeleting a threat removes all associated ratings, gaps, and tasks permanently.
SECTION 3

Module 02 — Probability & Impact

Rate each threat and assign a priority score. Every threat from your registry appears here as an expandable card. Click a card header to expand or collapse it.

Sort Order

Use the toggle at the top to switch between ADD ORDER (the sequence you entered threats) and PRIORITY SCORE (highest score first, unrated threats at the bottom). The active sort is highlighted in green.

Scoring System

Priority Score = Probability × Impact × Severity Modifier. Maximum is 75.

38–75HIGH — address immediately
16–37MEDIUM — address in near term
1–15LOW — address after higher priorities

Probability (1–5)

How likely is this threat to affect your AO within the next five years? 1 = very unlikely. 5 = near-certain. Select a Basis from the dropdown to document why you chose that rating.

Impact (1–5)

If this threat occurred, how severe would the effect be on your group? 1 = minor disruption. 5 = existential threat to the group.

Severity / Complexity Modifier (×1 / ×2 / ×3)

×1 StandardSingle, bounded event. Outside help arrives eventually. Life returns to normal within days to weeks.
×2 CascadingPrimary event triggers multiple simultaneous secondary failures. Help may be delayed or unavailable for weeks.
×3 CatastrophicLong-duration, wide-area event. No outside help is coming. Group survival directly at stake.

Threat Course of Action Analysis

Below the scoring buttons, ECHO asks you to define two course of action models. These come from IPB doctrine and are the most operationally useful fields in the module.

  • MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action) — How this threat most probably unfolds in your specific AO. Be specific: timing, direction, magnitude, and sequence of events.
  • MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action) — The worst plausible version. Not the most likely, but the scenario that would most severely challenge your group's survival. This is your planning driver for capability gaps.
DOCTRINEThe MDCOA is often more important than the MLCOA for preparedness planning. You prepare for the worst plausible scenario, not the most probable one.

Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIR)

Capture the specific questions whose answers would reduce your uncertainty about this threat. A well-formed PIR is answerable by a specific source — utility company, ham net check-in, personal observation — and is time-bounded. Example: "What is the current grid restoration timeline from the utility company?"

Early Warning Indicators

Add observable conditions that signal this threat is becoming more likely. Type in the field and press Enter or click + ADD. Click the status badge to cycle it:

NormalNo unusual activity. Monitoring ongoing.
ElevatedObservable increase in threat-related activity.
ActiveThreat is imminent or in progress. Red dot appears on the Module 01 threat card.

Trigger Event (Tripwire)

The single observable moment that shifts your group from monitoring to acting. State it as an if/then: "If grid is down for 72+ hours with no restoration ETA, execute shelter-in-place protocol." When set, it displays as an amber bordered box as a visual reminder during reviews.

Concurrent Stressors

What else would likely be happening at the same time? Major threats rarely occur in isolation. Document what secondary conditions your group would face simultaneously.

SECTION 4

Module 03 — Capability Assessment

Evaluate your group's current capability to handle each threat using the POETE framework. Threats appear sorted by priority score by default, with a rank badge (#1, #2, #3) showing position. Use the sort toggle to switch to add order.

BE HONESTRate your current capability, not what you plan to have. Overrating produces false security. Underrating produces an overwhelming gap list.

POETE Framework

PlanningDocumented plans, procedures, and mutual aid agreements. Could someone unfamiliar execute your plan from written documentation?
OrganizationGroup structure, defined roles, designated leadership. Is accountability clear?
EquipmentPhysical gear, supplies, and systems. Sufficient quantity for your group size and threat duration?
TrainingDemonstrated proficiency — not theoretical familiarity. Can your people actually execute?
ExercisesPractice under realistic conditions. An untested plan is a hypothesis, not a capability.

Rating Scale

1Critically Deficient — no meaningful capability
2Significantly Deficient — major gaps remain
3Partial Capability — can handle some but not the MDCOA
4Substantial Capability — minor gaps only
5Full Capability — can handle the MDCOA today

Capability Target Statement

Define exactly what good enough looks like for this threat. Be specific and measurable. Click INSERT TEMPLATE to load the CPG 201 standard format: "Within [timeframe] of [incident type], [who/group] can [critical task] for [number of people] for [duration] without [outside dependency]."

This target drives your gap identification in Module 04. If you cannot state specifically what success looks like, you cannot identify what is missing.

SECTION 5

Module 04 — Gap Analysis

A gap is the distance between your current capability and your Capability Target. Document every specific deficiency here.

BE SPECIFIC"We need more medical supplies" is not a gap. "No hemostatic gauze and no trained tourniquet applicator in the group" is a gap. Specific gaps produce specific corrective actions.

Adding a Gap

Click + ADD GAP on any threat. Fill in the modal:

  1. POETE Area — which dimension this gap falls under. If a gap spans multiple areas, create separate entries.
  2. Gap Description — describe precisely what is missing, how much, and why it matters for the MDCOA.
  3. Priority — High (must address before this threat is relevant), Medium (near term), Low (after higher priorities).
  4. Cost / Resource Tier — None / Minimal / Moderate / Significant / Major. Used to sequence the roadmap by effort as well as priority.
  5. Linked Module — select the WATCHMAN Suite module where this gap should be addressed. A clickable badge appears on the gap card and navigates to that module in a new tab.
  6. OPSCON Urgency — optionally set the readiness level at which this gap becomes critical. Connects to the SENTINEL module: the OPSCON level you set there is read here.
SECTION 6

Module 05 — Prep Roadmap

Converts your gap list into an action plan. Every gap gets a corrective task, a responsible person, a target date, and a status.

Dashboard

The top of Module 05 shows total gaps, open count, in-progress, complete, and — when applicable — an overdue count in red. The Gap Concentration line shows which POETE areas have the most gaps across all threats. If 80% of your gaps are in Equipment, your problem is procurement. If they are in Training, your problem is skills.

Task Fields

Corrective TaskThe specific action that closes this gap. One task per gap.
ResponsibleWho is accountable. Name or role. If unassigned, it will not get done.
Target DateSelect from the date picker. Tasks past their date show a red OVERDUE badge.
ApproachHow you plan to close this gap. Planning notes — not a commitment.

Task Status

OpenDefault. Not yet started.
In ProgressWork has begun. Card border turns amber.
CompleteGap is closed. Card border turns green. Updates the dashboard stats.
IMPORTANTMark Complete only when the underlying deficiency is actually resolved — when your group can demonstrably handle the MDCOA in that area.
SECTION 7

Generate Documents

Five printable documents generated from your assessment data. Navigate to Generate Docs in the sidebar and click GENERATE on any output.

Output 1Threat Priority Matrix — ranked table of all threats by priority score. Use as a leadership briefing document.
Output 2Gap Analysis Summary — consolidated list of all gaps across all threats, sorted by priority. Working checklist for your preparedness effort.
Output 3Preparedness Roadmap — task-level action plan with responsible persons, target dates, and status. Brief at group meetings.
Output 4Full THIRA Report — complete assessment document including all threat data, COA analysis, PIRs, POETE ratings, and gaps. Suitable for formal group briefing or binder archiving.
Output 5Group Vulnerability Profile — synthesized view of cross-threat vulnerability patterns. Surfaces issues you may not notice reviewing threats individually. The data collection payoff.
BINDER NOTEGenerate the Full THIRA Report after completing your initial assessment and save it as a PDF. This is your baseline document. File it in the ECHO tab of your WATCHMAN binder.
SECTION 8

First-Run Workflow

  1. Module 01: Add all credible threats. Select typed threats from the dropdown. Fill in every characterization field. Set Last Reviewed to today. Do not rate anything yet.
  2. Module 02: Rate every threat — probability, impact, severity. Write MLCOA and MDCOA for each. Add at least three early warning indicators per threat. Set a trigger event for each high-priority threat.
  3. Module 03: Rate POETE capability for each threat. Write a specific Capability Target. Be honest.
  4. Module 04: Document specific gaps for each threat. Link each gap to a POETE area, cost tier, and relevant WATCHMAN module.
  5. Module 05: Assign a corrective task, responsible person, and target date to every gap.
  6. Generate Docs: Generate the Full THIRA Report and Group Vulnerability Profile. Review the vulnerability patterns flagged. Address any High severity patterns before your next review cycle.
  7. Save: Click SAVE at the bottom of each section before navigating away.
SECTION 9

Acronym Glossary

Hover over any underlined acronym anywhere in ECHO for its definition. Full list below for print reference.

AOArea of Operations — the geographic area your group plans for and monitors
CMECoronal Mass Ejection — solar storm that can collapse the power grid
COACourse of Action — a defined path a threat or actor may take
CPGComprehensive Preparedness Guide — FEMA doctrine document series
EMPElectromagnetic Pulse — energy burst that destroys unshielded electronics
ETAEstimated Time of Arrival
EWIEarly Warning Indicator — observable condition signaling a threat may be developing
FEMAFederal Emergency Management Agency
FERCFederal Energy Regulatory Commission
IFAKIndividual First Aid Kit
IPBIntelligence Preparation of the Battlefield — military doctrine for threat analysis
JITJust-In-Time — lean supply chain model with minimal inventory buffers
KIPotassium Iodide — radiation protection medication
LELaw Enforcement
MDCOAMost Dangerous Course of Action — worst plausible version of a threat
MLCOAMost Likely Course of Action — how a threat most probably unfolds in your AO
NERCNorth American Electric Reliability Corporation — grid reliability standards body
OPSCONOperational Condition — readiness level system (5=Baseline to 1=Crisis)
OPSECOperational Security — protecting information that could be exploited
OSINTOpen Source Intelligence — from publicly available sources
PFProtection Factor — measure of how well a shelter blocks radiation
PIRPriority Intelligence Requirement — specific question driving active collection
POETEPlanning, Organization, Equipment, Training, Exercises — capability assessment framework
PPEPersonal Protective Equipment
SHTFPreparedness community shorthand for a major societal breakdown event
THIRAThreat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment — FEMA planning framework
TTPTactics, Techniques, and Procedures — standardized task execution methods
WUIWildland-Urban Interface — zone where structures meet unmanaged wildland
WROLWithout Rule of Law — societal condition where legal order has broken down

ECHO USER MANUAL  ·  © 2026 WATCHMAN SUITE, LLC  ·  THREAT & HAZARD ASSESSMENT — MODULE 01

SECTION 10

Demo Sandbox

ECHO ships with a demo sandbox — a separate copy pre-loaded with a worked threat assessment for a fictional AO: four threats across three categories (an extended grid failure with a full POETE evaluation, warning indicators under collection, and a capability target; a refugee-flow scenario with an actor profile; winter storm isolation; and a drought-year wildfire), each scored, with open gaps feeding the corrective roadmap.

Opening and leaving. In the live module, click DEMO in the sidebar under this manual. Inside the demo, that same slot reads RETURN TO LIVE and takes you back. An amber banner across the top of the demo tells you which copy you are in at all times.

Your real data is safe. The demo keeps everything in separate storage slots, including its own OSINT Station import queue and its own SENTINEL read, so nothing you do in the demo can touch your real threat register — and accepting or dismissing an import in the demo can never consume a real pending push.

Cross-sandbox wiring. The demo reads OPSCON context from the SENTINEL demo, receives threat pushes from the HUMINT Registry demo's queue, and the DEBRIEF demo writes its gap findings into this same demo slot: link a demo AAR finding to one of these threats and it lands in that threat's gap analysis. The demo sandboxes form one connected training environment.

Resetting. The ↻ RESET DEMO button in the top bar discards any changes and restores the sample assessment.

WATCHMAN : ECHO
THREAT & HAZARD ASSESSMENT  ·  MODULE 14

User Manual

Plain-language guide. No experience needed.
If you can fill out a form, you can run ECHO. Read this once, keep it in the binder.

This manual assumes you have never opened ECHO before. Every screen is explained in plain language. Work through it in order the first time. After that, use the table of contents to jump to what you need.

CONTENTS

Table of Contents

SECTION 1

What is ECHO

ECHO is the threat assessment module of the WATCHMAN Suite. It implements the THIRA framework — Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment — adapted for individual and small-group preparedness. The module answers three questions: What threats does your group face? How serious are they and how ready are you? What do you need to do about it and in what order?

ECHO is not a one-time exercise. It is a living document. Use the Review Cycle system to stay current.

SCOPE NOTEECHO handles preparedness capability assessment. Intelligence collection and active monitoring belong in Area Intel Map and Sentinel.

All data saves locally in your browser. Nothing goes to a server. Use the SAVE button before navigating away. Export a Full THIRA Report periodically as a backup.

SECTION 2

Module 01 — Threat Registry

Build your complete threat list. Include every credible threat. Do not filter at this stage.

DOCTRINEA threat that seems unlikely is still worth listing. Include it and give it a low probability score in Module 02.

Adding a Threat

  1. Click + ADD THREAT. Select a threat type from the dropdown (Natural, Technological, or Human-Caused). Select Custom / Other if no type fits.
  2. Fill in the Threat Characterization Data fields. These are specific to each threat type. Fill in every field you can answer — this data drives the Group Vulnerability Profile.
  3. For typed threats, click AUTO-GENERATE FROM FIELDS to write an AO Context summary. Edit as needed.
  4. Set Last Reviewed Date to today and choose a Review Cycle (30 / 90 / 180 / 365 days). A REVIEW DUE flag will appear on the card when the cycle elapses.
  5. Click SAVE THREAT.

Review Cycles

30 daysMonthly — fast-moving or active threats
90 daysQuarterly — human terrain, civil unrest
180 daysSemi-Annual — default
365 daysAnnual — slow-moving threats
WARNINGDeleting a threat removes all associated ratings, gaps, and tasks permanently.
SECTION 3

Module 02 — Probability & Impact

Rate each threat. Use the sort toggle at the top to switch between ADD ORDER and PRIORITY SCORE. Priority Score = Probability × Impact × Severity Modifier. Maximum is 75. High: 38+. Medium: 16–37. Low: 1–15.

Probability1–5: How likely within 5 years? 1=very unlikely, 5=near-certain
Impact1–5: How severe if it occurred? 1=minor disruption, 5=existential
×1 StandardSingle bounded event. Outside help arrives. Returns to normal in days/weeks.
×2 CascadingTriggers multiple simultaneous secondary failures. Help delayed weeks.
×3 CatastrophicLong-duration, wide-area. No outside help. Group survival at stake.

Course of Action Analysis

MLCOA — How this threat most probably unfolds in your AO. Specific timing, direction, magnitude, sequence.

MDCOA — Worst plausible version. Your planning driver for capability gaps.

PIR — Priority Intelligence Requirements

The specific questions whose answers reduce uncertainty about this threat. Each should be answerable by a specific source. Example: "What is the utility company's current restoration timeline?"

Early Warning Indicators

Observable conditions signaling a threat is becoming more likely. Click the status badge to cycle: Normal → Elevated → Active. Active indicators show a red dot on the Module 01 card.

Trigger Event

The single moment that shifts from monitoring to acting. State as if/then: "If grid is down 72+ hours with no ETA, execute protocol."

SECTION 4

Module 03 — Capability Assessment

Evaluate capability using the POETE framework. Threats appear by priority score with rank badges (#1, #2) in the header. Use the sort toggle to switch order.

BE HONESTRate current capability, not planned capability.
PlanningPlans, procedures, mutual aid agreements
OrganizationGroup structure, roles, leadership
EquipmentGear, supplies, systems
TrainingDemonstrated proficiency
ExercisesPractice under realistic conditions

Scale: 1=Critically Deficient · 2=Significantly Deficient · 3=Partial · 4=Substantial · 5=Full Capability

Write a Capability Target using the INSERT TEMPLATE button. CPG 201 format: "Within [timeframe] of [incident], [group] can [task] for [N people] for [duration] without [outside dependency]."

SECTION 5

Module 04 — Gap Analysis

Document every specific deficiency. Click + ADD GAP on any threat.

POETE AreaWhich dimension this gap falls under
DescriptionWhat is missing, how much, why it matters for the MDCOA
PriorityHigh / Medium / Low
Cost TierNone / Minimal / Moderate / Significant / Major — sequences roadmap by effort
Linked ModuleWATCHMAN module where this gap should be addressed. Clicking navigates there.
OPSCON UrgencyReadiness level at which this gap becomes critical. Connects to Sentinel.
SECTION 6

Module 05 — Prep Roadmap

Converts gaps into assigned, time-bound corrective actions. Dashboard shows total, open, in-progress, complete, and overdue counts. Gap Concentration line shows which POETE areas need the most work.

Corrective TaskSpecific action that closes this gap
ResponsibleWho is accountable — name or role
Target DateDate picker — past dates with open status show OVERDUE in red
ApproachHow you plan to close it — planning notes
StatusOpen (default) · In Progress (amber) · Complete (green)
IMPORTANTMark Complete only when the deficiency is actually resolved — when your group can demonstrably handle the MDCOA in that area.
SECTION 7

Generate Documents

Output 1Threat Priority Matrix — ranked by score, leadership briefing document
Output 2Gap Analysis Summary — all gaps across all threats, sorted by priority
Output 3Preparedness Roadmap — tasks, responsible persons, dates, status
Output 4Full THIRA Report — complete assessment, COA analysis, PIRs, POETE. File in binder.
Output 5Group Vulnerability Profile — cross-threat patterns. Medical dependency, heat source gaps, food depth, KI tablets, egress routes.
SECTION 8

First-Run Workflow

  1. Module 01: Add all threats. Fill characterization fields. Set review dates. Do not rate yet.
  2. Module 02: Rate every threat. Write MLCOA and MDCOA. Add 3+ indicators per threat. Set trigger events for high-priority threats.
  3. Module 03: Rate POETE capability. Write Capability Targets. Be honest.
  4. Module 04: Document gaps. Link to POETE area, cost tier, and WATCHMAN module.
  5. Module 05: Assign task, responsible person, and target date to every gap.
  6. Generate Docs: Run Full THIRA Report and Group Vulnerability Profile. File in binder.
  7. Save: Click SAVE at the bottom of each section before navigating away.
SECTION 9

Acronym Glossary

AOArea of Operations
CMECoronal Mass Ejection — solar storm
COA / COAsCourse(s) of Action
CPGComprehensive Preparedness Guide (FEMA)
EMPElectromagnetic Pulse
ETAEstimated Time of Arrival
EWIEarly Warning Indicator
FEMAFederal Emergency Management Agency
FERCFederal Energy Regulatory Commission
IFAKIndividual First Aid Kit
IPBIntelligence Preparation of the Battlefield
JITJust-In-Time supply chain
KIPotassium Iodide — radiation protection medication
LELaw Enforcement
MDCOAMost Dangerous Course of Action
MLCOAMost Likely Course of Action
NERCNorth American Electric Reliability Corporation
OPSCONOperational Condition — readiness level
OPSECOperational Security
OSINTOpen Source Intelligence
PFProtection Factor (radiation shelter)
PIR / PIRsPriority Intelligence Requirement(s)
POETEPlanning, Organization, Equipment, Training, Exercises
PPEPersonal Protective Equipment
SHTFPreparedness community: major societal breakdown event
THIRAThreat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment
TTPTactics, Techniques, and Procedures
WUIWildland-Urban Interface
WROLWithout Rule of Law

ECHO USER MANUAL  ·  © 2026 WATCHMAN SUITE, LLC  ·  THREAT & HAZARD ASSESSMENT — MODULE 01

SECTION 10

Demo Sandbox

ECHO ships with a demo sandbox — a separate copy pre-loaded with a worked threat assessment for a fictional AO: four threats across three categories (an extended grid failure with a full POETE evaluation, warning indicators under collection, and a capability target; a refugee-flow scenario with an actor profile; winter storm isolation; and a drought-year wildfire), each scored, with open gaps feeding the corrective roadmap.

Opening and leaving. In the live module, click DEMO in the sidebar under this manual. Inside the demo, that same slot reads RETURN TO LIVE and takes you back. An amber banner across the top of the demo tells you which copy you are in at all times.

Your real data is safe. The demo keeps everything in separate storage slots, including its own OSINT Station import queue and its own SENTINEL read, so nothing you do in the demo can touch your real threat register — and accepting or dismissing an import in the demo can never consume a real pending push.

Cross-sandbox wiring. The demo reads OPSCON context from the SENTINEL demo, receives threat pushes from the HUMINT Registry demo's queue, and the DEBRIEF demo writes its gap findings into this same demo slot: link a demo AAR finding to one of these threats and it lands in that threat's gap analysis. The demo sandboxes form one connected training environment.

Resetting. The ↻ RESET DEMO button in the top bar discards any changes and restores the sample assessment.